In March there was a lot of talk of victory, but now it has become more difficult to maintain the unity of the West against Putin.
=”NYT: Biden's new task is to prepare allies for a long war in Ukraine” />
When President Joe Biden met with allies in Europe three months ago, the world was rallying around Ukraine. And NATO suddenly found an old “new” goal for itself – to restrain Russia. There were talks about “increasing sanctions”. Vladimir Putin was retreating, and everyone was talking about victory.
Today Biden returns to Europe. And the situation surrounding the war that Russia unleashed against Ukraine is more difficult, – writes the New York Times. Russian oil exports are falling rapidly. But revenues from its sale only grow due to rising fuel prices. Focusing its efforts on the east and south of Ukraine, Moscow is achieving gradual but significant success. The surrounded Ukrainian troops are forced to retreat from key cities: first from Mariupol, and now from Severodonetsk.
Therefore, against the background of upheavals in the energy and food markets, Biden needs to prepare his allies for a protracted conflict, for the return of the “long twilight struggle” , as John F. Kennedy once described the Cold War. Not surprisingly, several cracks in the West are already becoming visible. As the approaching elections and public discontent begin to worry the leaders.
Officials in the White House claim that all this will not prevent Biden from putting even more pressure on Russia. And the last few weeks have been marked by behind-the-scenes negotiations about new ways to isolate Moscow. Former Pentagon press secretary John Kirby, who now works in the White House, told reporters to expect news of new measures “targeting Russia's defense supply chains, as well as strengthening the fight against attempts to circumvent these sanctions.” The publication admits that his words should have been a warning to China and India, which continue to buy Russian oil at a large discount. Kirby says Moscow is starting to feel the pain after four months of war.
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“Because of our actions, Russia unable to make bond payments, approaching default. And our further measures will further tighten the screws and reduce the flow of income that Putin needs to finance the war,” the American official said.
The White House is set to announce new steps aimed at strengthening NATO's capabilities. In particular, Washington is preparing a new “strategic concept” for the alliance, which will appear for the first time in 10 years. At that time, there were still talks about Russia's integration with Europe. Today it seems like a fantasy. Also, a big step will be the creation of new rapid response cyber forces, which will help defend NATO countries, as well as Sweden and Finland, whose applications for membership are awaiting approval.
But the key problem is how to deal with Putin at a time when Russia has ceased to be a friendly European country and has turned into an international pariah. American officials say the isolation of the Russian autocrat will intensify. But French President Emmanuel Macron, urging the West to refrain from the “temptation to humiliate” Putin, gave the first signal that there are differences in the views of the allies on the fundamental strategy of how much pressure should be put on the Russian autocrat.
“Compared to the trip to Europe in March, Biden is now dealing with an increased need to find compromises between domestic and foreign policy goals. His priority will be to increase pressure on Russia and help Ukraine. But it will have to be done at a time when the West is alarmed by food and fuel prices, alarmed by its stockpiles of weapons, and the end of the war is still not in sight,” said Richard Fontaine, executive director of the Center for a New American Security.
Currently, Biden does not feel much political pressure at home. Most of the debate revolves around how best to create more problems for Putin without escalating the war. But there was concern that rising fuel prices, as well as the cost of providing Ukraine with weapons, would eventually begin to reduce existing enthusiasm. Especially if Putin fulfills his threats to stop supplying gas to Europe in the fall.
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“All the leaders with whom Biden will meet are faced with the same problems. In addition, elections are approaching in the USA and other countries. Western unity is still at a high level, and support for Ukraine is firm, as is the desire to resist Russia,” Fontaine said, adding, however, that Biden's summer trip to Europe will demonstrate “how sustainable different lines of action will be amid a protracted war “.
Only two months ago, the Americans openly talked about victory over Russiaand about the approach of the moment when Putin's army will retreat to the positions it occupied until February 24. At the end of his last speech in Warsaw, Biden said that Putin “cannot stay in power.” The White House then quickly clarified that the US was not looking for opportunities to stage a coup in Moscow. But a month later, American officials had to explain what Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meant when he said that America wanted to “weaken Russia to the point where it would not be able to invade Ukraine again.”
Biden is now more cautious in his public statements, although his goals remain the same. The question is whether he can convince allies to shift from a crisis response to a long-term response to an invasion, knowing that the cost of that effort will mount, as will the pressure, as Putin tries to use every weapon at his disposal, including restricting gas exports and maintaining blockade of Ukrainian ports and grain.
“Naturally, people and governments lose interest in protracted conflicts. The world stopped paying attention to the war in Libya after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi, as well as to Syria, Yemen and other conflicts that were once in the headlines,” said Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba, adding that the same thing happened after Russia annexed Crimea.
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“Compromise with Russia may seem attractive to some abroad, especially given the rising cost of war “, Kuleba said, emphasizing that the only way out is a “complete victory for Ukraine”.
Everybody will agree with him in public. During the meetings in Europe, Biden will not say about it. But his administration discusses every week what to send to Ukraine and what not. The publication's sources said that the US president is constantly weighing whether sending new weapons will lead to a too rapid escalation of the war and whether it will give Putin another excuse to respond. However, at the same time, Biden is trying to ensure that Putin loses ground.
