Beijing, like Ankara, has open channels of communication with both Kiev and Moscow, but Chinese influence is much greater than Turkish.
Last week in Samarkand, participants of the annual summit of the Shanghai Organization of cooperation signed more than 40 final documents, which related to a wide list of areas, and also made statements about important problems, such as food and energy security, climate change and security of supply chains. New infrastructure projects were also announced, such as the construction of the Mongolian section of the new gas pipeline between Russia and China, as well as an international railway between China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.
The new railway will reduce the time needed to deliver goods from China to Europe . Now they are covering a long way through Russia, 900 kilometers long. A route through Central Asia has long been considered but never implemented, in part because it ran counter to Russia's strategic and economic interests. Wang Huyayo, the founder of the Beijing Center for China and Globalization, writes about this in an article for the Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post.
The fact that a railway bypassing Russia will now be built, in the author's opinion, indicates a change in the dynamics of forces in the region, as well as the evolution of Sino-Russian relations. These changes were also visible at the meeting of the leaders of the two countries. On the one hand, China and Russia emphasized strong bilateral relations, promising to support each other in matters of key interest to both countries. Russian President Vladimir Putin called the strategic relations between the countries “hard as a rock”.
The Chinese expert writes that in recent months, a number of events have brought Beijing and Moscow even closer. China was already Russia's largest trading partner, but has become even more important economically since the West imposed its sanctions against the Kremlin. For 8 months of this year, the total trade turnover between the countries increased by 31.4% in annual terms to 117.2 billion dollars. In Samarkand, Putin expressed firm support for China, condemning “provocative steps taken by individual countries on issues that concern key Chinese interests.” The author notes that recent positions, including consideration of the Taiwan Policy Act in the US Congress, will likely further strengthen Sino-Russian unity regarding Taipei.
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On the other hand, Wang Huyayo points out that the views of Beijing and Moscow on the Russian war against Ukraine have diverged. And it was noticeable at the meeting. Putin recognized a “balanced position” as well as China's “questions and concerns” about the war. He also added that he would explain his “position”. Putin is not one of those who ever felt that he needed to explain something to someone. His acknowledgment of Beijing's concerns suggests that, despite what some people believe, China is not fully on Putin's side on the Ukraine issue and did not collude with him to support the invasion.
If you put all the statements together, you can see that although bilateral relations remain strong, China still keeps a certain distance from Russia on the issue of the war against Ukraine. Since the beginning of the invasion, Beijing has tried to keep a low profile in order to stay out of the conflict. He did not condemn Russian aggression, but he also did not go against Western sanctions against the Russian Federation. China maintains close relations with Ukraine. In August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy again called on Beijing to help end the conflict.
Balancing has put China in a position where it has enough influence and impartiality to help negotiate a way out of the crisis. Beijing, together with the UN, could take on the role of mediator in the seven-party talks between the five permanent members of the Security Council, Ukraine and the European Union, to agree on a ceasefire and launch a peace process that would end the war.
Some may decide that the idea of giving Putin a negotiated way out of the conflict is untenable, especially in light of the Ukrainian military's successes, which raise the prospect of a Ukrainian victory. But in reality there are only four possible outcomes of the war at the moment. And none of them are very pleasant.
Also read: Putin's support is waning: India, China favor talks to end war in Ukraine – The Guardian
The first option – Russia may be defeated, its army will have to retreat completely. However, increasing pressure on Putin could make the situation even more dangerous. Because the Russian leader feels that he is being pushed to extreme measures. This is indicated by the recent escalation of attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. And last Friday, he warned that the war could become “even more serious”.
The second option is that the Russian army will regroup and, in the end, defeat Ukraine, forcing Kyiv to accept all of Moscow's terms.
The third option is the most likely now. He predicts that a grueling and protracted war will begin, in which neither side will be able to win. Both countries will suffer heavy losses, and the rest of the world will continue to suffer from economic instability and food and energy shortages.
This makes the fourth option the only real way to end the bloodshed. He predicts that peace negotiations will begin. At present, such a development seems a very distant prospect, given the current fighting and the steadfast position of both sides. But the grain agreement signed by Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the UN in Istanbul on July 22 shows that mediators can play a constructive role.
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Like Turkey, China remains one of the few countries that maintains open channels for dialogue with both Kyiv and Moscow. Only Beijing has much more influence. Achieving a multilateral solution to the current conflict will be a very difficult challenge. But the SCO summit highlighted the fact that no country has better opportunities to do this than China.
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