Towards the autumn, the dialogue between Kyiv and its Western partners will only be complicated by the pressure of economic problems, and calls for at least some truce will become louder.
Most likely, a major alliance whose goal is to defeat Russia in Ukraine , reached its peak strength. In the coming months, relations between the Ukrainian government and its external partners will become tense. And the culprit for these changes will be the economic pain intensified by the war.
Former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Andrew Exam writes about this in an article for The Atlantic. He notes that “when our grandchildren study this kofnlitk,” they will be struck by the speed and determination of Europe and the United States, which have mobilized to arm the Ukrainian army in the face of the Russian threat. This is in stark contrast to the Winter Wars of 1939-1940, when the Soviet Union invaded Finland and the Western powers procrastinated for a long time before providing very symbolic assistance to the Finns. The Europeans have made great efforts to provide Ukrainians with lethal means of defense.
“It simply came to my notice then. I was unlucky to work to reduce the risk of clashes between allied and Russian operations in Syria in 2015-2017, when we tried very hard not to kill a single Russian for fear of World War III. And today we are sending some of the most advanced anti-tank and anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine with the clear aim of killing as many Russians as possible. Not only the United States, but also the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Sweden (Sweden!) Quickly transferred anti-tank weapons, “the author writes, adding that Sweden and Finland have also applied to join NATO.
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The extraordinary reaction of the West confirms the scale of Vladimir Putin's miscalculations. At the same time, it contrasts sharply with the reaction of Europe and the United States to previous Russian invasions: to Georgia in 2008 and to Ukraine in 2014. In each of these conflicts, European powers avoided having to punish Russia for its actions. The refusal to do anything at least laid the groundwork for the Kremlin's calculations before the current invasion.
The war has already dragged on for months and there is no indication that it could end any time soon. British strategist Lawrence Friedman cited Putin's May 9 speech as a source of clue that Russia could agree to a truce. Kyiv must not encroach on Crimea, everything that Moscow regards as Ukrainian aggression in the Donbas must be ruled out, and Ukraine must guarantee that it will not deploy nuclear weapons on its territory.
But Ukraine is unlikely to agree to territorial concessions. And despite recent defeats, Ukrainians still feel capable of winning the war. Therefore, they continue to demand more support from the Western Allies. But now Kyiv wants help that would allow it not only to resist the Russian offensive, but also to recapture territory and engage in a duel with Russian artillery. The Joe Biden administration is reluctant to provide such assistance. And it's hard to imagine other countries taking more decisive steps than Americans.
The biggest reason for this passivity is that the economic cost of war is beginning to seriously worry American and other Western politicians. Inflation in the euro area reached 8.1% year on year. In the United States, meanwhile, it has reached its highest level in four decades. Economists warn of a recession next year, and business leaders fear that the recession will begin even earlier. Putin's war against Ukraine has not caused all these problems for the global economy. But it definitely does not benefit anyone. And it certainly played an extremely important role in creating the food crisis in the world. That is why now is the worst time to be a democratically elected leader anywhere in the world and a very good time to be a populist. Recent elections in Colombia, France, Australia and Germany have shown the pressures of incumbent presidents, prime ministers and ruling parties. Economic pressure, combined with the rise of populism, will affect the minds of Western politicians when they decide on a war that is hurting the world's major economies. As a result, talks between Ukraine and its supporters abroad will become increasingly difficult throughout the year. Not just Henry Kissinger will demand that Kyiv cede its territory so that Russia can “save face.”
However, even a hasty end to the conflict is unlikely to save the world from major economic problems. The Putin war, of course, has nothing to do with China's failed coronavirus policy or port efficiency problems on the West Coast. However, wars are as focused as port operations will ever be. The grumbling of Western capitals about the duration of the conflict will continue. And the “honeymoon” in relations between Ukrainian leaders and the West will soon end.
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Russia will notice this and will be pleased with the tension between Ukraine and its supporters. But Putin should not be too happy about it. The sanctions he has imposed on his country are surprisingly long. Regardless of whether the United States sends long-range missiles to Ukraine or not, no one will lift the sanctions. And the great losses among the junior officers in the Russian army speaks volumes about its combat ineffectiveness. Russia is able to absorb the enormous pain of losses on the battlefield. But despite minor territorial gains, its strategic position has not improved.
Ukraine, for its part, may decide that a difficult truce in early autumn may or may not be an acceptable final peace agreement. However, it will strengthen the defense in the east, where the landscape helps Russian armored vehicles and artillery, as well as replenish depleted combat units. Such a truce will also give tough sanctions more time to put pressure on Russian leaders. A truce, even a temporary one, will no doubt be quietly welcomed in the western capitals.
See the special topic: today. Ukrainian defenders shot down a missile over Poltava region Russia continues to fire on peaceful Ukrainian cities. Mykolaiv is being shelled again City residents are being asked to hide in shelters. Russia is regrouping forces in the Black Sea The risk of landing naval landings remains constant. “Ukraine can become self-confident”: Spiegel told why Germany does not want to supply us with tanks According to media reports, there is full agreement between Germany, France and the United States regarding the “tank embargo”.
