Putin would certainly like this, but experts doubt the ability of the Belarusian army to fight against Ukraine.
During the entire Russian war against Ukraine, the dictator of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, was balancing very carefully. On February 24, Russian troops stationed on Belarusian territory crossed the border of Ukraine. They used Lukashenko's country as a launching pad for the largest invasion of Europe since World War II.
But the Belarusian leader did not enter the war directly and did not send his own army into battle, sometimes complaining that the Russian invasion was “protracted”. . Now Lukashenka's meetings with Vladimir Putin once again sowed fear that Minsk is about to join the aggression, writes The Guardian. The Belarusian dictator said that his country and the Russian Federation would form a joint military group and that thousands of Russian soldiers would arrive in the country in the coming days for exercises.
“We emphasize once again that the tasks of the regional task force are purely defensive. And all the activities that are being carried out now are aimed at ensuring an effective response to actions near our borders,” said the Minister of Defense of Belarus Viktor Khrenin.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi pointed out alarming signals during the meeting of the leaders of the G7 countries in Tuesday, offering to send UN peacekeepers to the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, who would not allow Lukashenka to organize a “provocation”. But despite the alarming signals, there are serious doubts that Lukashenko is really ready to throw his troops into a war that Russia is already losing, even under pressure from Putin.
“Of course, Putin has a lot of leverage. But he cannot convince Lukashenka to commit political suicide. That is why I think that Lukashenko will definitely try to resist any incitement to a full-scale war,” said Artyom Shreibman, a Belarusian political analyst and researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“On the other hand, I cannot guarantee , that he can successfully evade forever. There are ways by which Russia can provoke Belarus to join the battle,” he added.
Read also: Lukashenko announced the deployment of the “regional grouping of the troops of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus”
By refusing to issue an order for the offensive of his own army, Lukashenko can allow Russian troops to deploy on the border with Ukraine in order to stretch the Ukrainian defense as much as possible. It may also allow Russia to use Belarus as a training ground for tens of thousands of mobilized Russians. The monitoring project “Belarusian Grove” reported that training may take place in several state buildings in the city of Yelsk, 17 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Classes at the local music school, located near the police station and another administrative building, were canceled. Local residents were also prohibited from photographing the convoys of armored vehicles that began arriving in the city on Wednesday.
Konrad Muzyka, an independent defense analyst and director of the defense think tank Rochan Consulting, explained that very few organizations actually monitor the Belarusian army because it is “relatively weak and, despite Lukashenko's rhetoric, there is nothing there.” The army of Belarus will have to mobilize 20 thousand men to reach its maximum strength. And there will be plenty of time to notice strategically alarming changes if Belarus starts mobilizing and moving troops to the border.
At the same time, Muzyka noted that Belarus is currently conducting the most intensive military exercises since the Cold War.
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“Minsk is testing all possibilities as if it is preparing for war. There are three possible explanations for this behavior: it is preparation for a NATO attack, it is an attempt to bind Ukrainian troops near the border so that they are not deployed in other areas, or it is preparation for an attack against Ukraine,” the expert added, noting that he is inclined to the second and third versions.
Read also: GUR: the Russian Federation is trying to draw Belarus into an open war against Ukraine
However, the videos show that Russia is not transferring heavy weapons to Belarus to attack Ukraine from its territory. It seems that everything is just the opposite. It is Belarus that sends its tanks, ammunition and trucks to Russia. “Belarusian Gayun” published a video showing how 8 T-72A tanks are being transported from Minsk to Russia. Eyewitnesses reported the dispatch of 15-30 tanks and at least 28 Ural trucks. Franak Vyachorka, adviser to the leader of the Belarusian opposition, Sviatlana Tsykhanouska, said that he does not believe that the army of Belarus will enter the war against Ukraine.
“I doubt it very much, we have no reason for it. In fact, it's just the opposite, with military commanders trying to reassure their soldiers that they won't be drawn into the war. Because the troops are very alarmed, watching the success of the Ukrainians. Nobody wants to fight for Putin,” he said.
Vyachorka also added that the Belarusian army does not have the capabilities to fight with Ukraine.
“We have no troops or equipment. A lot of equipment has already been transferred to the Russian Federation. Everything that could be used was used. There are very few combat-ready troops, about 7,000 soldiers, and they are not ready for offensive operations,” the oppositionist explained.
However, the biggest issue, most likely, is of a political nature. Having survived the protests in 2020, Lukashenko does not want to risk his position by getting deeper into the Russian war. Unofficial polls show that such a move is extremely unpopular in Belarus.
Read also: Russians could deliver 20 Shahid-136 kamikaze drones to Belarus – terror defense
“He doesn't want to be drawn into the war, because that would create a lot of risks for him,” Schreibman said, noting that polls showed that only 10% of Belarusians support direct involvement in a war against Ukraine.
< p>And since Russia is now retreating, joining the war could tie Lukashenka's fate to a Russian invasion, which could end in failure.
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