According to the National Bank, several scenarios are possible that we will experience next year.
=”The National Bank of Ukraine gave a forecast of how power cuts will increase inflation” />
Electricity deficit will increase inflationary pressure in the country next year. This was stated by the head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Andriy Pyshnyi, at the briefing.
According to the National Bank's estimates, several scenarios are possible.
According to the first scenario, prompt restoration of the energy infrastructure and fairly successful protection of airspace and energy infrastructure facilities is envisaged, Pyshnyi noted.
“The deficit of electricity according to our calculations according to this scenario should not exceed 25%. It is this scenario that we consider as basic when forecasting and evaluating possible options and action plan,” said the head of the National Bank.
“According to our estimates, the shortage of electricity will increase inflationary pressure for 1-2 v.p. in 2023,” Pyshnyi said.
At the same time, he noted that the second scenario involves deeper damage to critical infrastructure and slower recovery. Actually, this is what was observed after the consequences of the attack on November 23.
And the third scenario – large-scale interruptions in the power system. The National Bank considers this option the least likely.
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Recall that in 2022 inflation will accelerate to 30%, and the economy will shrink by almost 32% due to the devastating consequences of Russian aggression. This was reported by the NBU in its quarterly Inflation Report for October 2022.
