In Ukraine, there is an absolute market situation, which does not have any signs of a crisis.
There are no signs of a crisis on the fuel market in Ukraine, there are only certain nuances related to the market situation. However, the market, which today leads to a slight increase in prices, will turn prices in the opposite direction in a week or two. Serhiy Kuyun, director of “Consulting Group A-95”, emphasized this.
“I read various posts at night and decided to inspect the situation on the Kyiv-Boryspil highway in the morning. They write that there is a crisis, but we have a full assortment on the ceiling, how is that? … Crises don't look like that… Yes, there is an increase in purchase and wholesale prices, because our foreign counterparties keep their finger on the pulse here, as they say, “just business”. Because of this, we see a small increase in retail prices, which is also due to the increase in the costs of using generators,” he noted.
However, according to the expert, the calculations show that the costs for the use of generators they can add around UAH 1/l.
“At the same time, it's funny to read about the increase in the cost of sales due to Starlinks – don't laugh, please. There are no grounds for any tragic fluctuations,” Kuyun stressed.
But in a week or two, the reverse trend will very likely begin in Ukraine.
“The irony of fate is that the price is falling on the foreign market, and in supply difficulties are increasing. I hope we will feel this decrease in a week or two, when the factors listed above are expected to disappear,” said the expert.
Regarding current situation, then, according to Serhiy Kuyun, the following factors led to it:
- Navigation was stopped for 7-10 days in Romania and Bulgaria and in Moldova's Giurgiulesti due to weather conditions – storm and poor visibility. This led to the delay of the contracted cargoes. Now the traffic has already left.
- Because of the blackout, the work of the customs office is interrupted. There are thousands of cars at the border with various cargoes.
- Consumption in the country has increased slightly, although all networks have adjusted their purchases with a forecast for a seasonal decrease or at least stability.
- The second largest chain of gas stations “Ukrnafta” (540 gas stations) after “nationalization” found itself without fuel supply, which was carried out by the “Privat” group. Accordingly, the national company began looking for fuel and caused additional pressure on the market, which, of course, did not expect such a customer.
“Indeed, we have tension in the supply sector , which is caused by the coincidence of several circumstances. As we can see, there are some nuances. But this is a market situation, this has happened before in various variations,” the expert emphasized.
“What to do? Live a normal life, don't panic. Let me remind you that hype played not the last role in the May crisis. There is too much incentive in the market to increase supplies and it is already happening. It is real luck to get additional volumes of sales in what is usually a “dead” season.” – noted the director of “Consulting Group A-95”.
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