The Ukrainian port may become the main prize to be fought for in the next phase of Russia's war against Ukraine.
Western officials are convinced that Russia is likely to launch a new major offensive against Ukraine early next year. And this new attack may include an attempt to seize the strategically important Odessa, whose port currently remains blocked.
Foreign Policy writes about this, adding that Moscow's intentions are to seize the entire southwestern coast of Ukraine, cutting off our country from access to the sea. Odesa, which is called the “Pearl of the Black Sea”, has become a critically important trade hub through which Ukrainian grain is exported. If the Russian army seizes this port, it will undermine Ukraine's defense efforts and give Moscow greater control over global food supplies.
“There is an assumption that next year Ukrainians may face another very serious Russian offensive. And we need to do everything in our power to provide them not only with equipment, but also with people, fresh and well-trained people, so that they can endure,” an unnamed Western official told the publication.
However, the determined resistance of Ukrainian troops with the help of the West, as well as Moscow's own military mistakes, mean that the success of a potential Russian offensive on Odessa is far from guaranteed. Even if the occupation of the city becomes the main priority of the next phase of the war.
Read also: What to expect from the Russian offensive in Donetsk in the coming weeks – ISW
“Given that Ukraine bought time to fortify the southern region while the fighting continued in the east and north, it will be difficult for Russia to go in and capture Odesa, especially if the Russian fleet is held back by Western defense systems,” a former official of the US Department of Defense and export from security of Europe at the Jim Townsend Center for a New American Security.
The publication reminds that the White House recently issued a warning that Russia plans to annex territories not only in the east of Ukraine, where Moscow long ago created puppet “republics”, but also in the south of Ukraine. On Wednesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia's military goals in Ukraine are no longer limited to Donbas. This became a signal that Russia could expand its offensive.
“Russia is laying the groundwork for the annexation of Ukrainian territories that it controls, which is a direct violation of Ukrainian sovereignty,” said the press secretary of the US National Security Council. John Kirby.
According to him, Moscow is considering detailed plans about annexation of the Kherson, Zaporizhzhya, Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The publication notes that during the war, the Kremlin made important strategic gains in the south of Ukraine. The Russian army occupied Mariupol, which was the main port on the Sea of Azov, killing more than 22 thousand people and almost completely destroying the city. The port in Berdyansk was under Russian control. And Crimean ports, such as Sevastopol, have been controlled by Moscow since 2014.
However, Ukraine was able to recapture Snake Island at the end of June using Western Harpoon anti-ship missiles. The Pentagon believes that this will give Ukrainian defenders an advantage if they have to defend Odesa.
“Of course, this is not a panacea. But it will be much easier to defend Odesa, and in the future it will be possible to unblock sea routes if Russia does not control Snake Island,” said an unnamed US defense official.
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