Shoigu's ideas are only designed to appease Russian warlords and bloggers.
In Russia, there was talk again about the “threat from NATO”, and the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu declared about plans to increase the size of the Armed Forces. However, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) does not believe that Russia will succeed, according to a December 21 report.
The Kremlin accused NATO of a military threat to Russia, ISW analysts write. In particular, Shoigu stated that the expansion of NATO near the Russian borders, including the aspirations of Finland and Sweden for membership, requires a “proper” response from Russia to create a Russian group of troops in the northwest of Russia.
Therefore, Shoigu proposed to increase the size of the Russian army, in particular, he proposed to increase the number of the Russian Armed Forces to 1.5 million servicemen, including 695,000 contract workers.
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“However, it is highly unlikely that the Kremlin will build such a large conventional force in the time frame relevant to Russia's war in Ukraine,” the ISW report said. – Russia failed to fully equip existing brigades and regiments before a full-scale invasion and did not fully build a new division, which it announced in 2020, before the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.”
The Institute points out that the Russian economy is in recession, and its resources have been significantly reduced since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russia's training capacity has also declined since February 24, in part because the Kremlin has deployed training elements to participate in hostilities in Ukraine.
“Shoigu's proposals could become tippy-content=”<span>Overture</span>Instrumental performance in a theatrical performance”>overture, to appease a community of tabloids who have accused the Kremlin of not being serious about waging war or taking the steps necessary to win the war. It also establishes the informational conditions for the Kremlin to conduct future mobilization waves under the rubric of manning these formations and/or significantly increasing Russia's military strength in the long term,” analysts believe.
Read also: Putin's decree on increasing the army to 1 .2 million people: the ISW assessed the chances of mobilization in the Russian Federation
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Recall that in August Vladimir Putin decided to increase the Russian army to 2.04 million people. The document will enter into force in 2023, and so far the total strength of the Russian army is 1.9 million people, 1.15 of whom are military personnel.
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