Prolonged supply cuts could lead to shortages in Europe
The Kremlin plans to keep vital gas flows to Europe at a minimum level as long as the standoff over Ukraine continues. At the same time, he will increase pressure on the European Union due to its tough sanctions position. Bloomberg writes about this with reference to its own sources that are close to the Kremlin.
If the pressure drags on into the winter, the European continent, traditionally Russia's largest export market, may be critically short of fuel.
< p>Publicly, Russia claims that it was forced to reduce supplies due to technical problems, in particular the lack of turbines. But in reality, the Kremlin is using disruptions in Nord Stream — its main gas pipeline to Europe — as leverage to pressure its leaders to revise the painful sanctions they have imposed and reduce support for Kyiv. According to Bloomberg, this was reported by people in the know on condition of anonymity.
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They expect the Kremlin and state monopoly Gazprom to continue to find reasons to limit supplies, preventing European customers from building up the stocks needed to meet winter demand.
EU officials are already warning of serious economic disruption if supplies do not resume and are urging consumers to cut back on the vital fuel.
The gas dispute is the latest rate hike in the crisis over Russia's invasion of Ukraine and shows the Kremlin's willingness to forgo tens of billions of dollars in export revenue to pursue its geopolitical goals.
Read also: EU can survive the winter without Russian gas – European Commissioner
According to a person familiar with the situation, Gazprom has analyzed the possible impact of the shutdown and found ways to reduce its financial losses at the expense of sharp rise in prices this year.
In private, one of the interlocutors in the Kremlin expressed surprise that President Vladimir Putin has not yet stopped the gas supply, given the volume of European sanctions against Russia and the supply of weapons to Ukraine. According to him, Russia is using its energy leverage as a political tool in response to sanctions and will continue to do so.
Putin is reportedly continuing gas blackmail and demanding unblocking exports in exchange for removal of sanctions.
Russia under the pretext of “technical works” limits the supply of gas to Europe and is waiting for the onset of cold weather, when the lack of resources and their prices will become particularly noticeable.
On July 11, the Russian gas monopolist Gazprom announced the turbine shutdown at the Portova compressor station at the beginning of of the Nord Stream gas pipeline and reducing gas pumping from 67 to 33 million cubic meters per day.
Germany asked Canada to hand over a Siemens turbine under sanctions to the Russian Federation in order to spare Moscow arguments. Despite Ukraine's objections, Ottawa agreed to hand over the turbine. However, the turbine, which the Russian Federation demanded back, is stuck in Germany due to Moscow's refusal to approve its transportation.
German Economy Minister Robert Habek believes that there is no technical reason in Russia to limit the supply of gas through the pipeline “North Stream”. And what Moscow is engaged in is a trade war.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy is sure that Russia has unleashed a gas war against Europe. Its goal is to make it as difficult as possible for countries to prepare for winter.
