The world after Ukraine's victory: which players should you pay attention to? - World news

About “friendship groups” against each other, China's problems and India's ambitions

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Serhiy Korsunsky

Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine in Japan

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The World After Ukraine's victories: which players should you pay attention to? About “friendship groups” against each other, China's problems and India's ambitions
Is the “Global South” and the “world majority” “non-West” or “non-Russia”? About false assessments and incorrect theories
Everyone wants a different victory in the war with Russia : what we should know How the world changed during the year of the “three-day” war

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Russia will lose the war, no matter what their propaganda says. Imperial subjects believe in victory, although they can not notice the approaching catastrophe only in Moscow and St. Petersburg, from where they practically do not go to war, there they only get tired of it. Having suffered a military defeat last year and continuing to suffer huge losses in eastern Ukraine this year, Russia has activated hybrid tools. These include anti-government protests in Moldova, a sharp increase in the number of pro-Russian “canned” speeches in the West, threatening statements by North Korea, and diplomacy in the Russia-Belarus-Iran-China quadrangle. Russia has the resources to prolong the war, and this danger must be stopped.

Read also: WP: The New Cold War is not the worst outcome of Russia's war against Ukraine >

Analysis of the information field in the state of autocracy shows a strange synchronization of the main links. They can be characterized as follows: “enemies have surrounded, are provoking, exerting economic pressure, crossing red lines, and it will only get worse.” Putin does not get tired of talking about this, Lukashenko plays second fiddle to him, recently Kim Jong-un and Xi Jinping, who was re-elected for a third term, joined them.It is clear who the enemies are: it is the USA and the West, by which everyone understands their own, and the red lines are military maneuvers, arms supplies, economic sanctions and the formation of alliances – “friendship groups” against each other. That is, the regular passage of flotillas of Russian and Chinese ships near the coast of Japan, 89 tests of various types of missiles by North Korea last year, exercises in the occupied Northern territories are normal, and the joint maneuvers of the United States and Japan in neutral waters and the rearmament program of the Japan Self-Defense Forces are “red lines”.

What is happening is completely predictable. With the end of covid and the prolongation of the war to 2023, the world has revived. A new world order is at stake, all paths to it lead through the cessation of Russia's war against Ukraine and the post-war settlement from the point of view of both the international security system and the new model of economic relations, taking into account the growing ambitions of India, the aggravation of China's problems , the expected return to the big arena of Japan, the strengthening of the unity of Europe and the increasingly loud voices of Asia and Africa. Everyone goes to the goal in his own way, and it is very important to understand the real reasons for what is happening.

Read also: Everyone wants a different victory in the war with Russia: what we should know

Let's start with the main one – China.

Xi Jinping did not just become the head of the People's Republic of China for the third time. He completely consolidated power, subordinating the government to party structures and forming the highest echelon of governing bodies from personally loyal people. China suddenly showed unusual agility and “reconciled” Iran and Saudi Arabia after several years of negotiations in which Beijing had nothing to do, and also received visits from the leaders of Iran and Belarus, after which they became stronger friends. Before that, Wang Yi visited Moscow, a “peace plan” to end Russia's war against Ukraine was made public. It is said that Xi Jinping's visit to the Kremlin is being prepared, followed by a telephone conversation with the President of Ukraine.

China experts believe that China will not sacrifice Russia's interests (because between Xi Jinping and Putin there is a strong personal friendship), but also does not want to lose ties with Ukraine and is ready to consider the issue of aid and even participation in reconstruction, as soon as peace is restored. China really wants to become a peacemaker. The question is what path to achieve the goal he will choose.

Read also: Lifeline for Russia in the war against Ukraine

But that's not what worries me the most.Last year, trade between the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation increased by 34.3% to a record 190 billion dollars. China has decided to increase defense spending by 7.2% (to $224 billion) in 2023 against a projected growth of 5.3% (which is low for China, especially considering last year's disappointing 3% growth). At his first press conference, the newly appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China equated (possible) deliveries of Chinese weapons to Russia with the delivery of US weapons to Taiwan, and General Li Shanfu, who has been under US sanctions for cooperation with the Russian Federation since 2018, became the Minister of Defense of the People's Republic of China. He was responsible for purchasing the Su-35 and S-400 from the Russian Federation for the People's Liberation Army of the People's Republic of China.

To top it all off, Xi Jinping personally lashed out at the US, accusing Washington of the economic woes of the PRC, which, they say, arose not because of the crisis in the real estate market and not because the CCP took over the management of the economy and several flagship companies were actually expropriated for political reasons , and because of pressure from Washington.

Addressing private business representatives at a recent congress, Xi Jinping said: “In the coming period, the risks and challenges we face will only grow and become more complex. Only when everyone thinks as one and works as one, we will continue to win new battles,” the Chinese leader was quoted as saying by Xinhua. “We are in the same boat.” Familiar rhetoric? However, against the background of unprecedentedly low prices for huge supplies of Russian energy carriers to China and record volumes of trade with the USA and the EU last year, all this does not sound very convincing. It is rather strange not to mention that the economy of modern China arose thanks to the reforms of Deng Xiaoping, who relied on the political support and investment of the United States and Japan. Now, according to the CIA, Xi Jinping has ordered the People's Liberation Army of China to be ready for an invasion of Taiwan in 2027 (before the century of the People's Liberation Army), and the “hotline” between the United States and the People's Republic of China, as evidenced by the incident with the Chinese “weather probe”, has stopped working.< /p>

Read also: “Global South” and “world majority” are “non-West” or “non-Russia”?

Actually in the PRC economy, systemic problems have accumulated, which are waiting for system solutions.One of them is the decrease in the number of the population, which became obvious earlier, but was officially recognized only in January of this year. Forecasts of rapid growth until 2049, when China's GDP per capita should have reached almost three-quarters of the US GDP, are not just at risk – they are impossible.

The fact is that the influx of young people has always been a source of growth. and the dynamism of the development of the Chinese economy. An aging population with an extremely low birth rate slows down growth, as is happening in Japan and other developed countries. Investments in artificial intelligence and robotics do not save the situation, because innovations are created by people who are their consumers. The domestic market is developing at the expense of young people who need their own housing, household items, services, and work. Sure thing, economic weakening of China will occur gradually, but it is inevitable, like other developed countries, where there is no such source of elimination of the demographic problem as attracting young foreign labor. And the social structure of Chinese society is not well adapted to accept such “medicines”. p>

Putting the blame for the deterioration of the economic situation on the US is very similar to Moscow's rhetoric, and it is an extremely dangerous trend.Using the image of an external enemy in domestic politics leads to moral and political degradation, in the worst case – to war. Russia is not the first country that tried to solve its internal problems through external aggression, steeped in cave nationalism. It is important that she be the last. After all, another case of “copy-paste” from the Kremlin's methods was recorded when the official comment of the representatives of the People's Republic of China regarding the “peace” between Iran and Saudi Arabia stated that “the fate of the Middle East should be in the hands of the peoples of the Middle East.” At the same time, in the attached photo, Wang Yi was holding the hands of the ministers of foreign affairs of the two long-time enemies. I wonder whose hands he would like to join with a strong friendly handshake?

Read also: Russia's war against Ukraine: China is not our enemy?

It is also important to understand why suddenly many Western “experts” started talking about the need for negotiations: they say, every war ends this way. Putin activated the already high level – analysts of famous US research centers, professors of a number of leading universities, politicians, popular bloggers and SMM members. The average reference of conscience-free Americans and Europeans is approximately as follows: there is nothing to scare us that the annexation of Ukrainian territories will lead to a “domino” effect – after all, Crimea was annexed back in 2014, and nothing happened after that; the USA has a lot of its own problems and there is nothing to spend money on and involve Americans in a war that is not theirs; Putin cannot be defeated, he is playing the long game and has the resources to do so, so agree to a compromise. Small jabs at Ukraine, such as accusations of flourishing corruption and trade in Western weapons, do not even count.

Fortunately, a timely response to such nonsense and an unprecedented openness in the control of arms supply allow to remove some of the problems. However, the battle to defend the Ukrainian position — no negotiations with a mad dictator and aggressor until the liberation of all occupied territories — is in full swing. The comparison of 2014 and 2022 cannot be correct in any context, but for the purpose of propaganda, making analogies is a completely tolerable tool. Some gurus from famous universities even compare the current situation at the front with the First World War. Such a comparison is lame from the start, but it can be accepted by a part of the population that does not know history.

It is extremely important that a new player has appeared in the modern geopolitical game – India. Its influence is not very noticeable yet, but this condition is temporary. According to leading economists, in the medium term, India will become one of the most important countries in the world. India has already overtaken China in terms of population, and with a GDP per capita only a quarter of China's, India's potential is huge, even with the known problems of setting up Indian society. India's military and geopolitical position in Asia may well compete not only with China, but also with the United States.

There are several reasons for this. First, it is a democracy, and secondly, it is an almost inexhaustible market. Third, it is a state that has infrastructure, a well-functioning financial system, a skilled workforce and one of the largest IT sectors. India's economic model is still imperfect, it relies on a number of “national champions” of the oligarchic type, but this, according to experts, can be corrected. For the states of Southeast Asia, which turned out to be the arena of struggle between the United States and the People's Republic of China, India can become the third choice, if Delhi can materialize the potential not only of an economic nature, but also of a security provider. Indian anti-ship weapons systems have already been delivered to the Philippines, and negotiations are underway for the delivery of weapons with Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and Myanmar. India-ASEAN naval exercises will soon take place, QUAD dialogue is strengthening, as well as partnerships with Japan and France. China, which, not without input from Russia, has concentrated all its attention on opposition to the USA and the West, may soon receive a rival in the region that it will not be able to cope with. By the way, next year there will be elections not only in Taiwan, Russia, Ukraine and the USA, but also in India. The current prime minister is expected to remain in office, so India will continue its careful transition into a regional superpower.

We will win, but long-term peace must be prepared no less carefully than long-term war. We have something to offer the partners who supported us to take our undisputed place in the “table of ranks”. It is important to understand your advantages, believe in yourself and have an accurate plan to overcome obstacles.