Why the visit of the self-proclaimed president of Belarus to Iran carries risks for Ukraine
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- ZN.UA international policy columnist < /li>
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“Authoritarian regimes, unite!”
This seems to be the slogan of the foreign policy activities of the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, for the past month and a half. After he visited the United Arab Emirates, went to Zimbabwe and flew to China, Lukashenko went to Iran, a rogue country that, like Belarus, is under international sanctions and is one of the few military and political allies of Russia.
Website of the President of the Republic of Belarus
The formal result of the visit was the signing of several bilateral documents, the most notable of which is the comprehensive cooperation “road map” for 2023-2026. It would seem that what is special? But for Ukraine, Lukashenka's trip to Tehran carries serious risks. More on that below.
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Although there are suggestions that Putin used Lukashenko as an intermediary in his dialogue with representatives of the Iranian leadership, this is hard to believe: Moscow has enough communication with Tehran and its trust channels. Including at the highest level, in particular through the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Nikolai Patrushev and the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran Ali Shamkhani. In this situation, Lukashenko personally will not be able to convey anything new from Putin to the Iranian visa.
Pro-government Belarusian mass media write that the main topic of the negotiations is “the development of bilateral relations with an emphasis on trade and economic cooperation.” But this largely corresponds to reality. In the context of sanctions, Iran can become an important partner for Belarus, whose economy currently has problems both in connection with excessive dependence on the Russian market and due to sanctions pressure: Minsk was never able to compensate for the volume of exports that “fell out”.
Website of the President of the Republic of Belarus
Currently, Belarus is trying to restore the loss of sales markets in Ukraine and Western countries, which have been closed to Belarusian products since the beginning of the large-scale Russian invasion, as well as volumes of transit transportation of goods. And Lukashenko is looking for orders for Belarusian enterprises in a few “friendly countries”. After all, by and large, it is about the stability of the regime. In turn, Iran's economy, under sanctions, is technologically starved. And Minsk believes that it can help Tehran here.
It is noteworthy that when in 2021 the turnover between the countries exceeded 33 million dollars. (increased by more than a third, compared to 2020), then in 2022 Belarus and Iran traded for 100 million (At the same time, Belarusian exports to Iran increased almost sixfold to 81.3 million) bilateral economic relations is still secondary, since the main topic of Lukashenko's negotiations is the circumvention of sanctions by Belarus and Russia: both for Minsk and for Moscow this is a matter of survival.
First< /strong>, Russia lacks its own missiles and ammunition for shelling Ukrainian cities and conducting hostilities. Secondly, without deliveries of foreign chips to the Russian Federation, the production of military equipment may stop. Western and domestic analysts assume that during a recent visit to Beijing, Lukashenko discussed the prospects of supplying Chinese weapons to Moscow through Minsk, increasing Chinese purchases of Russian products through Belarus, and increasing Chinese investment in the Belarusian defense industry.
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In Kyiv, they are sure that Lukashenko discussed these same issues in Tehran. At least the president of Iran, Ibrahim Raisi, has promised to share his experience of resisting sanctions. And this experience is considerable: for many decades, the mullahs' regime came up with schemes to circumvent Western, in general, and American, in particular, restrictive measures. For many years operatives of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps have been laying channels for illegal arms supplies. Including through third countries.
Website of the President of the Republic of Belarus
Tehran is interested in the supply of Russian aircraft and the provision of nuclear technologies by Moscow. In return, he gives Russia “shahedis” and ammunition. But the Iranians cannot always send weapons to the Russian Federation directly, being wary of falling under new sanctions from the West. So, in December last year, the European Union adopted a new package of sanctions against Iran, including for the supply of drones to Russia, which it uses to attack Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure.
Read also: Iran secretly delivers drones to Russia using boats and government planes – The Guardian
So to fulfill their part of the deal, the Iranians will look for workarounds. For example, to supply drones to Belarus with their subsequent transfer to Russia. In addition, Minsk is also interested in Iran (as well as China and other countries) locating enterprises of the defense-industrial complex on the territory of Belarus in order to produce products for Russia.
We will remind: on the eve of Lukashenka's trip, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reported that the Belarusian delegation plans to discuss the possibility of organizing the technological process of assembling 122, 220, and 300 mm rockets on the territory of Belarus. Some interlocutors of ZN.UA claim that in Belarus, in the workshops of some state-owned enterprises, semi-finished drones from Chinese and Iranian components are already assembled for Russia. However, this production is not large-scale.
In view of the above, the conclusion of the representative of the US State Department, Ned Price, also seems natural — Lukashenka's visit to Tehran is “a continuation of the deepening of relations between Iran and Russia”. And the beneficiary of this trip is not only Russia, as well as China, which invests in the subjectivity of Iran and is interested in Moscow, Minsk and Tehran continuing to absorb the resources of the West, while Beijing does not jeopardize its relations with it.
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